Course Outline

1. Introduction

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   1. Welcome !

      1. Welcome to the course

2. Objectives and challenges of fiscal risks management

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   1. What are fiscal risks ?

      1. What should be the scope of fiscal risk analysis?
      2. Evaluation
      3. Reference materials on fiscal risks

   2. Characteristics of fiscal risks

      1. Characteristics of fiscal risks
      2. Evaluation

   3. Why is it important to document fiscal risks ?

      1. FR documentation
      2. The limitations and challenges of fiscal risks analysis
      3. Evaluation

   4. Fiscal risk management framework

      1. The four stages of fiscal risks management
      2. How to operationalize a fiscal risk management framework
      3. Evaluation

3. Overview of macroeconomic risks in Kenya

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   1. About this section

      1. Overview

   2. Identification of major macroeconomic shocks in Kenya since 1965

      1. Overview
      2. Evaluation

   3. What caused macroeconomic shocks in Kenya ?

      1. Main historical shocks
      2. Evaluation

   4. How does Kenya compares with other economies ?

      1. How does Kenya compare with other economies in terms of macroeconomic fiscal risks?
      2. Evaluation

4. Benchmark forecasting model for risk evaluation

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   1. Introduction to R

      1. Installation Guide
      2. Gatting started with R and Rstudio

   2. Handling data with R

      1. Data import and preparation

   3. Building a demand-side model for macroeconomic forecasting

      1. Why do we need a forecasting model ?
      2. Estimation and use of the forecasting model

   4. A simple macro-fiscal framework

      1. Computing the impact of a shock on Kenya's public revenue
      2. Using our model to quantify the impact of a shock on public revenue

5. Sensitivity of fiscal forecasts to major macroeconomic assumptions

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   1. Overview of sensitivity analysis

      1. What is sensitivity analysis?
      2. Evaluation

   2. Conducting sensitivity analysis: a simple framework

      1. Toolbox for the sensitivity analysis
      2. How to conduct sensitivity analysis

   3. Using R to produce useful graphs to visualize shocks

      1. Using R to produce useful graphs to visualize shocks

6. Alternative macroeconomic and fiscal scenarios

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   1. What is a coherent alternative scenario ?

      1. Understand what is a coherent alternative scenario and learn about ways to produce one
      2. Evaluation

   2. Quantifying an alternative scenario based on historical examples

      1. How to quantify an alternative scenario

   3. Using our framework to produce alternative scenarios

      1. Choosing and quantifying a relevant alternative downside scenario
      2. Preparing an upside alternative scenario

7. Probabilistic forecasts of fiscal outcomes

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   1. What is the purpose of probabilistic forecasts ?

      1. Probabilistic forecasts of fiscal outcomes

   2. Background on probabilistic forecasts

      1. Background on probabilistic forecast

   3. Implementation of probabilistic forecasts using R

      1. R code for probabilistic forecasts
      2. Evaluation